I always wanted to open a website where I explain who I think will win and cover the spread in any sporting event.

Then you take the opposite, and you should win money.

I’ve historically been absolutely terrible at picking games. I feel 100% confident in most of my selections, only to watch everything go to hell on game day. Like last week. Washington had won 7 in a row and they were playing at home against a team (Seattle) who was 3-5 on the road this year. Oh yea, and Washington was a 3-point underdog. Loved Washington. Easiest pick in the world.

Oops.

Given my past failures this will be my inaugural “pick the opposite” week. I’ll give you my 4 picks for this weekends games and you do what you want with it. If things work out the way they should I should be good for 3 out of 4 losses.

Baltimore vs. Denver (-9.5).

 

Love Baltimore in this game. I’m so torn at times with Peyton Manning. I used to think he was just a good fantasy quarterback that couldn’t produce when it mattered. All I’d hear from Indy fans was how much better he was than Brady. Then the playoffs would come and we’d beat the snot out of them as usual. They won the Super Bowl in 2006 against the Rex Grossman Bears. Does that even count? But, he did figure something out that year, beating the Patriots in the AFC Championship, and has owned New England since.

He won’t be passing against Darius Butler and Ellis Hobbs today though.

I like Baltimore. A week ago I would’ve told you that Denver wins this by 20. A lot has changed since then though. Mainly the weather. It’s supposed to be cold today in Denver. That’s not Peyton’s style. He’s 0-3 in the playoffs when the weather is below 40 degrees. The whole Ray Lewis factor too makes me believe this game will be close. Ray Lewis can’t possibly end his career by getting his ass kicked can he?

The best thing Denver has going for them is Joe Flacco. Flacco is a disaster. Then you factor in the fact that he’s in a hostile environment, in the cold against a hall of famer with a nasty defense. Oh yea, Denver also leads the NFL in sacks.

Expect a low scoring game with lots of turnovers, and at least 1 defensive touchdown.

Denver 17, Baltimore 14.

Green Bay at San Francisco (-3)

 

Can’t say I love either team in this game. More money is on the Packers in Vegas than any other team this weekend. I really don’t get why though.

San Francisco’s defense is as legit as you get. They’re at home. I know it was week 1 but they did beat this team on the road earlier this season. The Packers offensive line is a joke. Aaron Rodgers was sacked more than any quarterback in the NFL this year, and their offensive line was second only to Arizona in sacks allowed. Yup, that means Mark Sanchez was sacked LESS than Aaron Rodgers.

I guess the reason people like Green Bay is because of the quarterback situation. Rodgers has won a Super Bowl. Kaepernick just got the job. I don’t get it though. His receivers are all struggling. Jordy Nelson’s obviously battling through injury. Randall Cobb peaked at midseason. Jermichael Finely dropped off the face of the earth. And their running back is Dujuan and only Dujuan Harris.

I expect Rodgers to face constant pressure all day and Kaepernick to carry HIS team to the NFC championship.

San Francisco 27, Green Bay 14.

Seattle at Atlanta (2.5)

 

I absolutely hate this game. Hate it. I am far more interested in the outcome of this game than any other because I have no friggin clue who will win. That means this will probably be the game I get right.

Seattle is on fire. All they do is cover the spread each week by 3 touchdowns. Russell Wilson looks unstoppable and Pete Carroll looks like a genius. I feel like I’m in the Seinfeld episode of “Bizzaro World”.

Matt Ryan has been labeled as a guy who can’t win, because he’s 0-3 in the playoffs. BUT, who has he lost to? Last year it was at home against the 9-7 Giants. The year before it was at home against the 10-6 Packers. The year before that it was at home against the 9-7 Cardinals. What do those teams have in common besides mediocre records in the regular season? They all made the Super Bowl and two of them won it all. Apparently the road to the Super Bowl goes through Atlanta.

I hesitantly like Atlanta in this game. Part of me feels that Seattle will continue to roll and I’ll feel stupid. Then I’ll think they’re unbeatable, bet on them next week and watch them lose. But, it’s just gotta be the Falcons this time. They’re 13-3 and playing at home. They have the best receiving tandem (Roddy White and Julio Jones) in the league. Their defense is subpar, but if they can’t step up for this one, then I am done ever having faith in this team. Matt Ryan will have trouble throwing against Seattle’s jailbreak secondary, but expect a random good game from Michael Turner, with maybe 2 touchdowns.

Atlanta 24, Seattle 21

Houston at New England (-9.5)

 

Houston sucks. Does anyone think Matt Schaub is going to come into Foxboro and win? They beat Cincinnati last week. We’re all very impressed with their ability to stop Benjarvus Green-Ellis in Andy Dalton. Dan Shaughnessy is right, the Texans don’t have a prayer. The fact that Arian Foster is using Shaughnessy’s column as motivation tells you how desperate the Texans are for motivation. He’s even made it his twitter avatar earlier this week. That’s right, FSR (for some reason) Arian Foster is motivated by a curly haired know it all from the Boston Globe. Does anyone in the Patriots locker room really give 2 shits what a writer form the Houston Chronicle thinks of them? I guess when you realize that your team has very little chance of winning you get desperate. If he wanted motivation he could have looked at the predictions of pretty much every writer in the country.

The Patriots defense is nothing special, but they can stop the run. Unfortunately for the Texans, running is pretty much all they have up their sleeve, in a league where passing wins championships. Vince and company will eat him for lunch. Brady will score early and often to a healthy assortment of receivers. The Texans are going to be forced to pass, which means Schaub will screw it up. He’s either going to have to force it to Andre Johnson or pass to a combination of Lester Jean, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels. Good luck with that.

New England 31, Houston 10.

 

Feel free to tell me how wrong I am in the comments.